Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Falcons vs. Bears
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-105) after it opened @ 36.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to notch 6.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has been much more involved in his team’s passing game this season (26.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.0%).
- Kyle Pitts has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
- Kyle Pitts’s skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this season, accumulating 6.64 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.59 rate last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.6 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 28.5 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- Kyle Pitts has put up substantially fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (54.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
