Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+118/-163).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-163) after it opened @ 40.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 66.8% pass rate.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- Hayden Hurst has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (73.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to garner 5.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Bengals are an enormous 7-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Hayden Hurst’s skills in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this year, notching a mere 3.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.08 figure last year.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.3%) to TEs this year (69.3%).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties grade out as the 8th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
