Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 7.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, earning a Target Share of 22.5% this year, which places him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has given up the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 143.0) to wide receivers this year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.2%) vs. wideouts this year (61.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards