Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-130) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
- The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.36 seconds per snap.
- The predictive model expects Evan Engram to garner 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- Evan Engram’s 22.6% Target% this year indicates a noteable gain in his pass attack utilization over last year’s 17.6% rate.
- Evan Engram rates as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 49.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- Evan Engram has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (27.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
- This year, the formidable Titans defense has given up a measly 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
