Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Evan Engram from EV Insight

Evan EngramReceiving Yards

Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-130) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.36 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects Evan Engram to garner 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Evan Engram’s 22.6% Target% this year indicates a noteable gain in his pass attack utilization over last year’s 17.6% rate.
Evan Engram rates as one of the leading pass-game TEs this year, averaging a terrific 49.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Cons

This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Evan Engram has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (27.0 per game) than he did last season (35.0 per game).
This year, the formidable Titans defense has given up a measly 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 6th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards