Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+115/-145).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-145) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).

Pros

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 61.1 plays per game.
Diontae Johnson has run a route on 96.6% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accumulate 8.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Diontae Johnson has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Diontae Johnson’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 66.4% to 61.7%.
Diontae Johnson’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, totaling just 6.08 yards-per-target vs a 7.32 figure last year.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) vs. wideouts this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards