Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-118).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.
- The projections expect DeAndre Hopkins to accrue 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs.
- After accumulating 111.0 air yards per game last season, DeAndre Hopkins has seen marked improvement this season, now sitting at 122.0 per game.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Titans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- DeAndre Hopkins has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (82.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
