Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 73.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 73.5 (-115) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to notch 11.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Davante Adams has posted significantly more air yards this season (125.0 per game) than he did last season (102.0 per game).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 28.94 seconds per snap.
- Davante Adams has accumulated many fewer receiving yards per game (83.0) this season than he did last season (96.0).
- Davante Adams’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 60.0%.
- Davante Adams’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this season, averaging a mere 8.11 yards-per-target compared to a 9.79 figure last season.
- The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in football (just 118.0) to WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
