Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for D.J. Moore from EV Insight

D.J. MooreReceiving Yards

Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-113).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a remarkable 95.8% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, D.J. Moore ranks among the wide receivers with the highest volume in the league.
The model projects D.J. Moore to earn 7.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
D.J. Moore has accumulated a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (76.0) this season than he did last season (49.0).

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.1% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Lions pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.13 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards