Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-131) after it opened @ 54.5 (-117).

Pros

With an exceptional 92.2% Route Participation Rate (90th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton ranks as one of the wideouts with the most usage in the league.
The predictive model expects Courtland Sutton to notch 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
With a stellar 57.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (78th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton places among the leading wide receivers in the league in football.
Courtland Sutton’s 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a substantial gain in his receiving prowess over last year’s 59.4% figure.
This year, the feeble Minnesota Vikings defense has been torched for a staggering 174.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing WRs: the 9th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to call just 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a measly 53.7 per game on average).
After accruing 100.0 air yards per game last year, Courtland Sutton has significantly declined this year, now pacing 62.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards