Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-125/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-125) after it opened @ 58.5 (-117).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
- The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.36 seconds per snap.
- The predictive model expects Christian Kirk to notch 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- Christian Kirk has been an integral part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 23.3% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
- Christian Kirk has been one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 69.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the imposing Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a meager 3.6 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
