NFL

Bets

November 15, 2023

Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Christian Kirk from EV Insight

FTN Staff

Christian KirkReceiving Yards

Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-125/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-125) after it opened @ 58.5 (-117).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.36 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects Christian Kirk to notch 7.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Christian Kirk has been an integral part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 23.3% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Christian Kirk has been one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging an impressive 69.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

Cons

This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
This year, the imposing Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a meager 3.6 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards