Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chigoziem OkonkwoReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Chigoziem Okonkwo’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (+114/-146).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (+114) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.5% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.
- In this contest, Chigoziem Okonkwo is projected by the projection model to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.8 targets.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a much bigger part of his offense’s passing offense this season (15.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (10.8%).
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
- The model projects the Titans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- Chigoziem Okonkwo’s 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a significant regression in his receiving prowess over last season’s 71.9% rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
