Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 83.5 (+100) after it opened @ 86.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 62.0 per game on average).
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
- The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.4 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has accrued significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (105.0) this year than he did last year (77.0).
Cons
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Lions being a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Receiving Yards
94
Receiving Yards
