Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Jaguars vs. Titans
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 248.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 248.5 (-115) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
- The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.36 seconds per snap.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in football vs. the Titans defense this year (74.8% Adjusted Completion%).
- When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Tennessee’s unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league.
Cons
- This week’s line suggests a running game script for the Jaguars, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game versus the Titans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- This year, the daunting Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing offenses: a paltry 4.3 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
