Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Broncos vs. Vikings
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 206.5 (-114) after it opened @ 204.5 (-114).
Pros
- Russell Wilson’s 67.8% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteable gain in his throwing precision over last year’s 59.3% rate.
- This year, the weak Vikings defense has given up a whopping 73.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-largest rate in the league.
Cons
- The Broncos feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to pass on 52.5% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by the model to call just 63.3 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
- The 4th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a measly 53.7 per game on average).
- This week, Russell Wilson is predicted by the projections to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.0.
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
