Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (+105/-135).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-135) after it opened @ 232.5 (-135).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has afforded their QB 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 203.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards