Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matthew StaffordPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Saints vs. Rams
Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 230.5 (-135) after it opened @ 232.5 (-135).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.1 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 7th-most of all QBs.
- The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks profile as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has afforded their QB 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the league.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 203.0 per game) vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
