Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 12 of the college football season is here.
Below, Monotone will give out his favorite CFB play of the week.
USC -2 vs. UCLA
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
We have been betting on Pac-12 action all season long, and now finally have their most important game of the season. While multiple teams have shown potential to be playoff competitors in the Pac-12, USC is the final team that remains and needs to take down UCLA to keep that dream alive. UCLA was also in contention before running into a very tough Oregon team on the road, then losing a heart crushing game against Arizona to put the nail in the coffin. They can still contend for the Pac-12 championship if they play spoiler to USC here though.
Caleb Williams has been USC’s best player this season, passing for over 3,000 yards with a 31:2 touchdown:interception ratio. While their passing game is one of the strongest in the nation, they did just lose lead back Travis Dye, which could lead to some uncertainty in the rushing game. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and running back Zach Charbonnet are the heart and soul of the UCLA offense, and they will do their best to control the pace of this game on the ground. Neither of these teams are known for playing defense, so I’m expecting sparks here.
The biggest advantage USC has over UCLA is the fact that they should be able to handle adversity much better. While UCLA is having a very impressive season, when they don’t get to play on script, things become a lot tougher. While DTR has been phenomenal on the ground in tandem with Charbonnet, he has been significantly less impressive when put in positions where they must pass the ball. Forcing the UCLA offense into unfamiliar territory early will be key to a USC victory here. On the other side of the ball, Caleb Williams and this passing attack is one of the strongest in the country, so if they fall behind early, I have a lot of confidence in their ability to come back. While losing Travis Dye isn’t great, they’re replacement backs will be coming in and running behind the highest graded offensive line in the nation.
I think this will be an extremely close (and entertaining) game. It may be one of those situations where the last team to handle the ball is the one that wins, and I honestly even considered betting the over at the astronomically high 75-point total. If it comes down to an offensive shootout where both teams are forced to score later in the game, I’m going to trust a USC offense I believe is less likely to make a crucial turnover. USC had one similar game to this earlier this year, where they ended up losing to Utah. Despite taking the loss, they played a very good football team, but Utah was the better team on that given day. I do think USC is the more talented team in this matchup, and I expect them to seal the win on their road to the playoffs.
