Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyler MurrayPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Cardinals
Right now, Kyler Murray’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 234.5 (-113) after it opened @ 241.5 (-114).
Pros
- A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
- The model projects the Arizona Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.
- In this game, Kyler Murray is anticipated by the model to total the 5th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.2.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (264.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.8% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
- At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (58.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- With a weak 6.18 adjusted yards-per-target (10th percentile) since the start of last season, Kyler Murray stands among the least effective passers in the league.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Houston’s CB corps has been great this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards
237
Passing Yards
