Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Browns
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 283.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 283.5 (-115) after it opened @ 272.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.46 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Josh Allen has passed for significantly more yards per game (302.0) this year than he did last year (249.0).
Cons
- The Bills are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
320
Passing Yards
320
Passing Yards
