Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davis MillsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Texans vs. Commanders
Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 220.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 220.5 (-110) after it opened @ 223.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 36.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, conceding 8.13 yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
- The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Davis Mills has been among the least effective quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a lowly 6.63 yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
250
Passing Yards
250
Passing Yards
