Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There were some awesome fantasy performances across the NFL in Week 11. Fifteen players across all positions in fantasy scored at least 25.0 fantasy points in Week 11, headlined by Taysom Hill (41.5 points), Amon-Ra St. Brown (38.7), Jared Goff (34.5), Saquon Barkley (33.8) and Brock Bowers (31.3). It was sorely needed by many after Week 10’s disappointment.
Week 12 features six different teams on bye, including three teams (Atlanta, Buffalo and Cincinnati) that are crucial for fantasy production. Being active on the waiver wire will be crucial this week with the fantasy playoffs just around the corner.
Check out Week 11’s risers and fallers below to find players to target (or avoid) going forward in fantasy.
Risers
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson’s return to the starting lineup led to a massive day for fantasy managers who kept the faith.
Richardson had arguably the best day of his career, completing 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards and a touchdown. He also added 32 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The second-year quarterback had his second game with 29.0 or more fantasy points in 2024.
This game symbolized all of the good that Richardson provides as a fantasy quarterback and justified the top-6 quarterback price tag during the draft season. While the fantasy managers who paid the price won’t look back on him as a great pick, it does show that the process that led to it was sound.
As long as Richardson is starting for the Colts, he needs to be rostered in fantasy. We have seen massive highs from the quarterback this season and also terrible lows. He remains a risky fantasy start given his inconsistencies as a quarterback and his injury risk.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears
Week 11 was Chicago’s first game without Shane Waldron this season. New offensive coordinator Thomas Brown’s first game calling plays may have introduced another running back into fantasy relevance for the remainder of the season.
D’Andre Swift has dominated Chicago’s backfield all season, but Roschon Johnson saw his role increase dramatically in Week 11. Johnson played 30 snaps compared to Swift’s 41. He also ran 14 routes and handled 10 carries, just four less than Swift. The result was a solid day for Johnson (10 carries for 33 yards and a touchdown) where he handled a majority of the earl- down snaps consistently throughout the game.
It is always dangerous to lean too heavily on small sample sizes, but the truth is fantasy managers need to be churning the waiver wire to find playable depth heading into the fantasy playoffs. Johnson needs to be on the fantasy radar in case his increased workload proves to be part of Brown’s changes to the offense.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr.’s strong rookie season continued in Week 11 against the Lions. The rookie caught five of seven targets for 82 yards in Jacksonville’s blowout loss. More importantly for the Jaguars, they suffered another loss of a key offensive starter. Gabe Davis went down with a non-contact injury, leaving Thomas as the best weapon on offense.
The rookie has been pretty reliable this season, logging at least four targets in 10 of 11 games played. He now has eight games with at least 40 receiving yards on the year. Now he could be the last wide receiver standing for the foreseeable future. The big plays may dip considering the lack of weapons in Jacksonville, but the pure target share increase should offset that.
There is a lot of risk going forward for Thomas in fantasy. The loss of Christian Kirk and Davis means that defenses will get to focus on him. Mac Jones at quarterback means the targets won’t be as accurate. But Thomas could be poised for big value down the stretch as the lone receiver in Jacksonville’s passing attack.
Taysom Hill, Everything, New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill is set to go nuclear down the stretch of the 2024 season. New Orleans has already lost Rashid Shaheed for the season and will be without Chris Olave for the foreseeable future. Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller have both been out in the backfield.
Things were even worse in Week 11, with rookie receivers Bub Means and Mason Tipton out. That led to an expanded role in the offense for Hill.
Hill had seven carries for 138 yards and three touchdowns while adding eight receptions (on 10 targets) for 50 yards. His 41.5 fantasy points is one of the five highest point totals scored by a single player in fantasy football this season.
Expecting that kind of production from Hill for the remainder of the season would be reckless, but his role in this offense will be massive as long as he’s healthy. New Orleans will continue to get him involved through the air and on the ground as long as they are missing key starters on offense.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins
The return of Tua Tagovailoa has brought life back into Miami’s offense. One player who has benefitted the most is tight end Jonnu Smith
Since Tagovailoa returned, Smith has been targeted 24 times. He’s converted those targets into 18 receptions for 212 yards and two touchdowns. Most of that production came in Week 11 (six receptions for 101 yards and two touchdowns), but Smith has entrenched himself as arguably the most trusted receiver on the offense outside of Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane.
Given the unpredictability of the tight end position in fantasy, Smith’s consistent workload with Tua makes him an interesting play in fantasy. He can provide an adequate floor with the possibility of a big week.
Fallers
The Raiders’ backfield
Las Vegas’ backfield was already turning into a mess with Zamir White earning a bigger role in recent weeks despite solid play from Alexander Mattison That was shifting this backfield into a three-headed approach with Ameer Abdullah handling the pass-catching work.
The approach wasn’t yielding great results on a bad offense, with Mattison pacing the group in fantasy with 7.6 points per week over the last four games. Things may have gotten even worse in Las Vegas in Week 11.
Both Mattison (ankle) and White (quad) got injured against the Dolphins, leaving Abdullah as the only active back. If White and Mattison miss time, the Raiders will surely find a way to split the backfield once again.
Fantasy managers likely weren’t relying on this group for anything more than a touchdown play, but they are even less reliable going forward.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
There have been some good weeks for Kareem Hunt as a Chief. Hunt has handled at least 14 carries in seven games with Kansas City. While he’s had a lack of efficiency, he’s still been a solid fantasy asset with 449 rushing yards and five touchdowns. Hunt also gave a bit of extra value in PPR formats thanks to 14 receptions for 116 yards.
Hunt has benefitted greatly from a volume role and positive game scripts, but that may be coming to an end in Week 12. Isiah Pacheco is set to return next week, putting Hunt’s role in jeopardy going forward. The team will likely split the backfield until Pacheco is at full strength, but it shouldn’t take him long to earn the full-time role back again.
Fantasy managers who broke the bank for Hunt on the waiver wire certainly got their money’s worth, but he will quickly be relegated to a bench filler with Pacheco back on the field.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
Nick Chubb had his most efficient game of the season against the Saints, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Unfortunately, the Browns were trailing during the game, which limited Chubb to just 11 carries.
The negative game script led Cleveland to use Jerome Ford far more since the team was stuck in passing situations. Ford led the backfield in snaps (41), routes run (29) and targets (4). He also handled five carries. Chubb and Ford have split the backfield since Chubb returned from his ACL recovery, but this game showed that the team will not be afraid to lean on Ford in negative game scripts.
Cleveland is not very good, so the likelihood that the Browns are in negative game scripts is pretty high. That, combined with the increasing likelihood that the Browns will lose enough to protect Chubb’s health, makes him hard to trust down the stretch in the fantasy playoffs.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Adonai Mitchell made the most of an increased role in Week 10 thanks to Michael Pittman Jr.’s back injury. He caught all six of his targets for 71 yards and nearly had a massive week due to a missed touchdown. There was hope that his performance could have led to an expanded role in the offense once Pittman returned.
Unfortunately, Week 11 showed that wasn’t the case.
Pittman Jr. returned to the field, leading to Mitchell going back to the bench. The rookie finished fifth on the team in snaps at receiver (12 – behind Ashton Dulin). He ran only five routes and saw one target against the Jets.
Mitchell is well behind Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs on the depth chart. He has zero fantasy appeal as long as all three of those players are healthy going forward.
Colby Parkinson, TE, Los Angeles Rams
Sure, Colby Parkinson caught a touchdown in Week 11’s win against the Patriots. However, Parkinson has steadily lost his role to Davis Allen this season, a trend that continued against the Patriots.
Allen headed a three-man rotation at tight end in Week 11, leading in snaps (34) and routes run (17). Parkinson drew the only target of the group, and while it yielded a touchdown, that isn’t something we can count on weekly.
Even if Parkinson does see his role increase to previous levels, it is hard to imagine a situation where he can earn consistent targets over Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua It is time to drop Parkinson in fantasy and start searching for better options.
