Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Tony Pollard from EV Insight

Tony PollardRushing Yards

Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Cowboys are a heavy 17.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this week’s contest, Tony Pollard is projected by the projections to rank in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.9 rush attempts.
After comprising 41.6% of his offense’s run game usage last year, Tony Pollard has been more involved in the ground game this year, now taking on 62.4%.
This year, the tough Giants run defense has allowed a feeble 4.73 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 27th-lowest rate in the league.

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Tony Pollard’s 2.62 yards-after-contact this year indicates a noteworthy decline in his running prowess over last year’s 3.82 rate.
When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, New York’s collection of DTs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards