Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cowboys vs. Giants
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a heavy 17.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The model projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- In this week’s contest, Tony Pollard is projected by the projections to rank in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.9 rush attempts.
- After comprising 41.6% of his offense’s run game usage last year, Tony Pollard has been more involved in the ground game this year, now taking on 62.4%.
- This year, the tough Giants run defense has allowed a feeble 4.73 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 27th-lowest rate in the league.
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- Tony Pollard’s 2.62 yards-after-contact this year indicates a noteworthy decline in his running prowess over last year’s 3.82 rate.
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, New York’s collection of DTs has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
