Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 78.5 (-115) after it opened @ 84.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.5% run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 16.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has earned 60.7% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has rushed for a lot more yards per game (105.0) this season than he did last season (86.0).

Cons

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have run for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 113 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards