Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 10 Thursday Slate
The same game parlay for Thursday night is very heavily slanted to one team. That is because the Carolina Panthers looked absolutely horrendous last weekend, and I cannot get myself to trust anyone on that roster. They faced off against the Cincinnati Bengals last week and got absolutely torched right from the start. Atlanta’s offensive is very different and nowhere near as explosive through the air, but the disturbingly bad rush defense is what I think propels the Falcons here. Here’s how I plan to capitalize on it.
Falcons -2.5
Cordarrelle Patterson Anytime Touchdown
Kyle Pitts Over 25 receiving yards
When building a same-game parlay, you want to make sure you have a gamescript in mind. If that script plays out the way you expect, who benefits from that most? This is what I did here with my same game parlay for Thursday night football. My thesis is pretty simple. The Panthers’ run defense stinks. They got exposed badly last week against the Bengals as Joe Mixon ran wild and found the end zone on five different occasions. Atlanta is one of the run-heaviest teams in football, even in negative gamescript situations. I am not expecting a negative situation here, but just wanted to mention it to prove the point.
Atlanta is one of the best teams in the league against the spread at 6-3. The fact that the spread is under a field goal here makes laying those points even more enticing. If Atlanta is going to win or have a lead in this game, they will likely follow the gamescript the Bengals used and run the ball down the throat of this Panthers team. Cordarrelle Patterson returned last game after sitting out for about a month and quickly picked up where he left off. Patterson found the end zone twice, giving him five rushing touchdowns in five games played in 2022. He scored at least one TD in four of those five games, which makes the plus money odds seem a little too high. Atlanta is not going to use Patterson as a workhorse, but the guy still had 13 carries last game and routinely has seen double digit carries for this Falcons squad when healthy.
Kyle Pitts has been one of the biggest disappointments of 2022. It is not entirely his fault, but it is true. As bad as he has been, he’s still gone for 25 or more yards in four of the eight games he has played this year. He has seen a bump in targets recently and has gone over his number each of the last two games. He had been averaging five targets per game until the last two when he saw seven and nine. I think expecting the 1,000-yard receiver we saw last year out of Pitts is a fool’s errand, but if you told me earlier in the year we’d be able to get such low receiving yardage numbers on him, I would have bet them all. Pitts may not be the 100 yard per game threat he was in 2022 in this offense, but 25 yards is disrespectfully low for his talent and the growing opportunity he is seeing.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
