Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Latavius Murray from EV Insight

Latavius MurrayRushing Yards

Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).

Pros

Latavius Murray has been much more involved in his offense’s running game this year (47.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.5%).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Cons

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 84 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards