Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Latavius MurrayRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Titans vs. Broncos
Right now, Latavius Murray’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- Latavius Murray has been much more involved in his offense’s running game this year (47.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.5%).
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the least yards in the NFL (just 84 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
- The Tennessee Titans defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
- The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards
43
Rushing Yards
