Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
Nikola Jokic Under 24.5 Points
(-102, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Celtics have not been as elite defensively as they were last year, but I do expect that to improve over the course of the year, and Nikola Jokic has not been scoring as much as he was last year, only averaging 21 PPG.
Top Assists Prop
Jevon Carter Over 5.5 Assists
(-128, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jevon Carter popped for 12 assists last game in the Bucks double-OT game, so while he was able to play an extra 10 minutes, he still played 35 minutes in regulation. He should see big minutes and nice volume with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday out.
Top Rebounds Prop
Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 Rebounds
Steven Adams Over 10.5 Rebounds
(Same-Game Parlay, +234, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Both of these guys project for big time production on the glass Friday. Steven Adams will likely be forced into more time on the floor with how big this Minnesota team is.
Top Underdog Pick
Lakers ML
(+158, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Kings are definitely the better team here, but the Lakers still have some talent despite LeBron James being ruled out here, and they are at home against the up-and-down Sacramento Kings.
