Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Jets
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-151/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-151) after it opened @ 63.5 (-119).
Pros
- In this week’s game, Breece Hall is projected by the model to land in the 85th percentile among RBs with 16.2 rush attempts.
- Among all RBs, Breece Hall grades out in the 88th percentile for rush attempts this year, comprising 55.0% of the workload in his team’s rushing attack.
- With a stellar total of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (85th percentile), Breece Hall stands among the leading RBs in the league this year.
- Breece Hall rates as one of the leading RBs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 3.57 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 97th percentile.
- The opposing side have run for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the league (144 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to run on 40.0% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
- The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
