NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/9)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I know that it’s Thursday, which should mean a TNT Thursday, but unfortunately, we’ll have to tune into NBATV and miss the best studio show in sports. Either the NBA or the folks at Turner Broadcasting are too afraid of the NFL’s “marquee matchup” of the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers, but if there were ever a night to steal a few NFL eyeballs for the NBA it would be this one.

This drives me nuts every season, and I’ll do my best to not bring it up again, but it’s certainly worth mentioning given the NFL game that’s being played. Instead of watching a bad football game, you (and everyone, really) should be watching two potentially fun basketball games. The first is as a divisional rivalry that featured an average of 268 points per game in their four matchups last season. The second is a tight matchup of too Eastern Conference teams with aspirations of taking a big step forward over last season and it’s played in Mexico.

It may just be two games, but there’s a lot to cover. Let’s dive into each game.

NBA Best Bets for Thursday

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

Current Line – Bucks -3, 243
My Projection – Bucks 124, Pacers 120
Key Injuries – Damian Lillard is questionable.

This matchup features two teams who played Wednesday night and are playing their third game in four nights. It’s a little worse for the Indiana Pacers who are playing their fifth game in seven nights, but things look pretty even in terms of schedule/rest disadvantage. The NBA has done a better job scheduling teams that are at a rest disadvantage to face another team that is also at a rest disadvantage. It’s never great to force teams to play back to backs, but at last it’s equal for both squads. Damian Lillard played 34 minutes and is currently listed as questionable with a calf strain. My guess is that he plays barring a setback during warmups. The spread looks to be set based on a 70% chance Dame plays. Giannis Antetokounmpo should be fresh having played just 22 minutes Wednesday. He was ejected early in the third quarter after two weak technical foul calls. The Pacers enter in good form after scoring 152 points and 134 points in their last two games.

This will be Indiana’s fifth straight game at home, which can be a real advantage as team’s shoot better in more comfortable surroundings the longer they are there. It’s a tough matchup for both teams. Indiana doesn’t have a defender that can slow down Giannis or a wing defender that can give Dame trouble either. Milwaukee is going to struggle to stop Tyrese Haliburton if they can even slow him down. Everything adds up to a close game with a lot of points and the market clearly agrees. I see no value in the spread. It’s hard to evaluate such a big total because it’s such an outlier compared to all other NBA totals, but I lean over. These teams play four times a year and it’s generally a high scoring affair, so if you have to bet the total, bet the over, bet some alternate overs, and/or pick a team and play the over for their team total. Those are all fine angles and possibly small edges, but the bet I really like in this game is the over for Tyrese Haliburton’s points. As mentioned, the Bucks don’t have a player who can defend him and there’s going to be a lot of points. The betting markets have adjusted Haliburton’s assist numbers, but his points total still lags behind in my assessment.

Bets

Tyrese Haliburton Over 22.5 Points (+100, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.75U)
Tyrese Haliburton 30+ Points (+440, FanDuel Sportsbook, 0.25U)

Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic (Mexico City)

Current Line – Hawks -3.5, 231
My Projection – Hawks 116, Magic 114
Key Injuries – Wendell Carter and Gary Harris are out. Markelle Fultz is questionable.

For the first time this season, we have international NBA basketball. For the 12^th time since 2014, two teams head to Mexico City to showcase the league in another country. Last season, the Miami Heat beat the San Antonio Spurs 111-101, the first game in Mexico since 2019. Everyone is familiar with the effects of the altitude in homes games for the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets because Salt Lake City has an elevation of 4,265 feet and Denver is 5,280 feet above sea level. Mexico City sits at an altitude of 7,349 feet, which is 39% higher than Denver and 72% higher than Salt Lake City. That will impact each team’s physical fitness and endurance in a meaningful way. We don’t have a large enough sample size of games played in Mexico City yet, but they have generally been low-scoring affairs with low scoring second halves. Legs are heavier as the game goes on, and this could be a great opportunity to play the second half under and a live under after the second quarter if you are watching the game and see the pace start to slow and shots to start to come up short. Keep that in mind and be sure to check the FTN Bets Discord #nba-plays chat to see if I made that bet. The full games lines look just about right to me and to be frank, I’m happy to pass on major markets for games in other countries played in stadiums that these players have never visited. The good news is that there are a few prop angles I like in this matchup. This is an awful spot for the Orlando Magic to be missing their best and only true center in Wendell Carter. The Hawks have a few good big men who attack the boards with ferocity. That’s going to require players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero to focus more on rebounding than they would normally and leave more boards available for them to grab. I’m going to play over for both players’ rebound props.