NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Javonte WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bills vs. Broncos
Right now, Javonte Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-135) after it opened @ 54.5 (-121).
Pros
- The model projects the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to tilt 1.5% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
- The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to accrue 15.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- Out of all running backs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 86th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 53.7% of the workload in his team’s run game.
- With a remarkable rate of 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (79th percentile), Javonte Williams has been as one of the leading RBs in the NFL this year.
- This year, the stout Bills run defense has allowed a puny 4.94 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 30th-lowest rate in the league.
Cons
- An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a big -7.5-point underdog this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 6th-least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 42.7% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Broncos have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 52.2 plays per game.
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, Buffalo’s collection of LBs has been outstanding this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
