Week 10 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the projections to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
Out of all running backs, Alvin Kamara grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 56.1% of the workload in his team’s running game.
With a stellar record of 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (87th percentile), Alvin Kamara stands as one of the leading running backs in football this year.

Cons

The model projects the Saints to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 40.2% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging just 2.25 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.
This year, the poor Vikings run defense has yielded a massive 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 27th-highest rate in the league.
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Minnesota’s DT corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards