Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Vikings vs. Saints
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the projections to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
- The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
- Out of all running backs, Alvin Kamara grades out in the 89th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 56.1% of the workload in his team’s running game.
- With a stellar record of 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (87th percentile), Alvin Kamara stands as one of the leading running backs in football this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Saints to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 40.2% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- Alvin Kamara ranks as one of the weakest RBs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging just 2.25 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.
- This year, the poor Vikings run defense has yielded a massive 3.78 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s rushing attack: the 27th-highest rate in the league.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Minnesota’s DT corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
