Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Kenny PickettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Steelers vs. Packers
Right now, Kenny Pickett’s passing yards prop is set at 208.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 208.5 (-101) after it opened @ 202.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The 6th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in football.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
- Kenny Pickett’s 60.9% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a material diminishment in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 64.9% mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
238
Passing Yards
238
Passing Yards
