Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Conklin from EV Insight

Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The predictive model expects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Tyler Conklin to accumulate 4.5 targets in this week’s contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
With a fantastic 35.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (80th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin ranks among the top pass-catching TEs in the NFL.

Cons

The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
Tyler Conklin has totaled far fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (38.0 per game).
The New York offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards