Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tank DellReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bengals vs. Texans
Right now, Tank Dell’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest.
- In this game, Nathaniel Dell is projected by the model to position himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
- Nathaniel Dell has accumulated a whopping 87.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among wide receivers.
- Nathaniel Dell’s 48.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the league leaders: 75th percentile for wideouts.
- Nathaniel Dell grades out as one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an outstanding 59.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- The Houston Texans feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.6% pass rate.
- Our trusted projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- This year, the stout Bengals defense has allowed a puny 60.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-lowest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
