Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
My second entry in the Circa Millions contest went a very respectable 4-1 last week, catapulting it to tied for 66th place out of 5,273 entries in the contest. My first entry is still languishing in the middle of the pack at 2,745th place, so it doesn’t really stand much of a chance for much of anything at this point.
Here are some of the sides I like in the NFL this week.
Week 10 Circa Millions Picks
New Orleans Saints -2.5
There’s nothing I hate more than picking against Joshua Dobbs. How do you not love a journeyman rocket scientist who comes into a game and pulls off a come-from-behind upset? Unfortunately, the public loves this story too much, and the line doesn’t respect that this Saints team really is a lot better than the Vikings despite a Dobbs-injected pep in the step for the Vikings. Also, using DVOA, the Saints are the highest confidence bet this week.
New York Giants +16.5
This isn’t even a good line since I’m often seeing Giants +17 or +17.5 lately. I just can’t lay that many points especially when everyone will point to how the Cowboys beat them 40-0 Week 1 when Daniel Jones was playing. Everyone wants to make fun of and beat up on the lowly Giants, which makes me think they keep this thing closer than we all expect.
Washington Commanders +6.5
I don’t have a strong feeling for this game, but this line seems a little stale at 6.5 I’m often seeing 6 at the sharper sportsbooks. I’ll take the free hook here.
Arizona Cardinals +2
I’ve just kind of had it with Arthur Smith and whatever voices in his head tell him how to use Bijan Robinson less than he should. I may just blindly pick against the Falcons for a bit. This, of course, means it’s likely Bijan breakout week.
