NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/10)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! Happy Friday! Fridays are great, because it’s not only the end of the week, but it’s often a night with a jam-packed NBA slate. And to add to the excitement, it’s an NBA In-Season Tournament night! Yes, I know I’m more excited than most about it, but the first batch of In-Season Tournament games were fun whether you liked the special courts or just liked laughing at the special courts.

Teams generally played their best players, played them extended minutes, and the games were entertaining. I’m still not sure if winning the trophy in Las Vegas will mean a lot to most people, but as I’ve said before, anything that makes regular season basketball better is a good thing to try.

Let’s take a look at three games with bets I’ve made and see where we can find value. Of course, you can check out the video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Please check it out and leave a comment about something you like or something that could better. To the hoops…

NBA Best Bets for Friday

Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs

Current Line – Timberwolves -6.5, 225.5
My Projection – Timberwolves 118, Spurs 109
Key Injuries – None

This game features two of the best young players in the NBA. Victor Wembanyama has lived up to the hype heaped upon him all offseason. He’s impacting games defensively just like we thought, but with each passing game his offense gets better and better. Wemby shows flashes of being a good passer and great cutter which are important dimensions for his game. Anthony Edwards was the leader of the USA team in the FIBA World Cup last summer, and that dynamic has carried into this season where he has taken over the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s a rare combination of offensive firepower and defensive ability. Hopefully Friday is a preview of some big Timberwolves/Spurs matchups in the years to come. Neither team has any rest concerns, but each has a schedule spot that can be funky.

This is the first game of Minnesota’s five-game road trip that features a two-game series against Golden State Sunday and Tuesday, making this a potential look ahead spot. San Antonio is playing at home for the first time in a week and teams often struggle at first when returning to their lives at home. The injury report is clean, which is generally good, but the Spurs will be reintegrating Devin Vassell. My projections like the Timberwolves here quite a bit, but I am worried about the potential of a down game ahead of playing the Warriors. Instead of betting the full game number which is subject to a backdoor loss if Minnesota slows down in the fourth quarter, I’ll play them in the first half. They’ve been one of the best first half teams in the league building their leads early this season. I think they can cover the full game number and possibly even more, but I think the first half is the best angle.

Bet

Minnesota Timberwolves 1H -3.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook or BetMGM)

New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets

Current Line – Rockets -1.5, 220
My Projection – Rockets 110, Pelicans 107
Key Injuries – CJ McCollum, Jose Alvarado and Amen Thompson are out. Zion Williamson, Herbert Jones and Alperen Sengun are questionable.

For the first time in years, the Houston Rockets have a winning record thanks to a four-game win streak featuring three wins of 15 or more points. They’ve taken advantage of an almost two-week homestand, which allows a team to feel comfortable and shoot well in familiar confines. New coach Ime Udoka has done a great job of integrating new veterans while allowing the young core to grow. Alperen Sengun has been a brilliant creator on offense and Jalen Green is shaping into the potentially elite scorer some expected him to be. Friday, they face a team that is in a bad schedule spot in the New Orleans Pelicans. This will be the last game of their road trip and they play division rival Dallas when they get back home Sunday and again Tuesday. Zion Williamson is available to play, but it will be the first game since the birth of his child Monday, which is wonderful, but certainly not conducive to remaining in peak basketball mode. CJ McCollum and Jose Alvarado will be missed, especially if Herbert Jones misses the game as well. That would leave the Pelicans without a good perimeter defender against a team with a few good perimeter scorers. This is a great spot to fade a New Orleans team that is all but certainly look forward to their return trip home. With Zion in, I don’t want to bet the Rockets to win or cover the spread, but instead, I’ll take bet the under on the Pelicans team total.

Bet

New Orleans Pelicans Team Total Under 109.5 (-104, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings

Current Line – Thunder -2, 231
My Projection – Thunder 118, Kings 114
Key Injuries – De’Aaron Fox is out.

The Sacramento Kings really miss De’Aaron Fox. As some that bet on the Kings twice without him last week, I am surprised at how much bigger of an impact there has been when Fox can’t play this season versus last season. The offense was able to stay afloat without him in 2022-23, but this year has been much different. Domantas Sabonis and Kevin Huerter haven’t been able to generate offense and create opportunities for their teammates. After failing to score 100 points twice against the Rockets and needing overtime to defeat the Portland Trail Blazers they host the Oklahoma City Thunder who are playing good basketball with their star back in the fold. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 43 points Wednesday, and there is little reason to expect much less than that here. Sacramento lacks a good rim protector and although Davion Mitchell is good defending on the perimeter, SGA is going to have his way this evening. Defensively, the Thunder match up well with lots of athletic, long armed players to throw at Sabonis, Huerter, Keegan Murray, and Harrison Barnes. I have the Thunder bigger favorites in the market and will be betting them. As always, the line versus moneyline debate is tricky when you get to the -1.5 range. I generally play them ML if I can get -125 or better and the spread is -2, -110. If the spread is -1.5 -110, I would only play the ML if it were -120 or better. In this case, it looks like our options are -2 -110 or -122, so I’ll take the -122 (or -125 or better).