Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Robert Woods from EV Insight

Robert WoodsReceiving Yards

Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-133) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Robert Woods has been a key part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 20.4% this year, which puts him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have utilized play action on 30.3% of their passing plays since the start of last season (7th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging just 52.0 plays per game.
Robert Woods has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (64.0 per game).
Robert Woods has put up significantly fewer receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (67.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards