Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
For the Week 10 same game parlay of the day, we will have to get up bright and early as this will be the first regular season game to kick off on German soil. The Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are facing off in a game that sets up with some pretty narrow funnels that we can make money off of. Make sure you get these in before bedtime on Sunday to avoid waking up late and missing out on the same game parlay opportunity from the first German NFL game.
Models are only as good as the inputs you use to build them. If you have a large sample of games, you can make better predictions with all that information. When the number of games a team has played without a player or with a player in a new role is limited, it is much tougher to accurately predict how that player will do. That leads to some inefficiencies in pricing and that is what we are looking to take advantage of for our Week 9 NFL same game parlay pick.
DraftKings NFL Week 10 Same Game Parlay
Seahawks Moneyline
Kenneth Walker Anytime Touchdown
Tom Brady Over 250 Passing Yards
The same game parlay for Sunday is one that takes advantage of trends that people may not realize are going on. The first one to discuss is the Seahawks winning this game outright. Seattle is one of the most underappreciated teams of 2022. They are tied for the league lead at 6-3 against the spread. On the flip side of this coin, the Bucs are the worst team in the league ATS at 2-6-1. This tells us that the betting public has been overvaluing the Bucs and undervaluing the Seahawks all season long. Even if this game was in Tampa, I would think the spread is a bit high, but without factoring in a boost of home-field advantage, you could make a strong argument for this line being even or a slight edge to the Seahawks side. With Seattle being the underdog here, we definitely have some value on them. The spread is below 3, so I would rather take them on the moneyline than take the +2 or +2.5 being offered.
Another trend that many seem to be overlooking is how awesome Kenneth Walker has been as the workhorse back in Seattle. Since Rashaad Penny went down, Walker has reeled off at least one touchdown in five straight games. He started four of those games and has averaged over 20 carries. The volume is definitely there, and Walker has proven to be a very reliable every-week option. This is a tough defense, but the weakness of it has been against the run this year where the Bucs only rank in the bottom third of the league overall and bottom half in most major categories.
The Tampa running game is moving in the opposite direction as the Seattle one. After leaning on the run early in the year with the pass catchers all injured, Tampa has reverted to more of a pass heavy gameplan lately with the running game being largely ineffective. Starting in Week 3, Brady has not thrown fewer than 40 passes in any game and is averaging over 47 pass attempts per contest. He failed to throw for 250 yards only once, with just 243 in Week 6 against Pittsburgh. Every other six of the last seven contests he topped this number, including three games of 325 or more yards.
The thesis here is that Seattle runs the ball well, with Walker benefitting by finding the end zone, something he has done seven times in the last five weeks. Tampa will continue to be pass heavy in that scenario, which will help Brady top his 250 yards, but ultimately the underrated Seahawks at 6-3 ATS will top the overrated Bucs and send them to 2-7-1 ATS in 2022. I always worry about some late game Brady magic, but that magic has not been seen as often in 2022 and everyone is still acting like the Tampa team is a legit Super Bowl contender when they currently are in danger of not even making the playoffs.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
