Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-109/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-125) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to notch 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
Mike Gesicki’s possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 73.8%.
Mike Gesicki’s receiving efficiency has been refined this year, accumulating 8.87 yards-per-target compared to just 6.85 rate last year.

Cons

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this season (59.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.7%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards