Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-125) after it opened @ 25.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to notch 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- Mike Gesicki’s possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 73.8%.
- Mike Gesicki’s receiving efficiency has been refined this year, accumulating 8.87 yards-per-target compared to just 6.85 rate last year.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- Mike Gesicki has gone out for fewer passes this season (59.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
