Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bears vs. Panthers
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to notch 5.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among TEs.
- With a remarkable 18.8% Target Share (92nd percentile) this year, Cole Kmet rates among the TEs with the highest volume in football.
- Cole Kmet has totaled a massive 31.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (51.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
- Cole Kmet’s possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 74.3% to 84.5%.
Cons
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.4 per game) this year.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
