Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-150/+120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-150) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to accrue 8.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
- Amari Cooper has been much more involved in his team’s passing offense this year (26.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.8%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Amari Cooper’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.7% to 64.3%.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
