Week 10 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amari Cooper from EV Insight

Amari CooperReceiving Yards

Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-150/+120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-150) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to accrue 8.6 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
Amari Cooper has been much more involved in his team’s passing offense this year (26.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.8%).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Amari Cooper’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.7% to 64.3%.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards