Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Raiders vs. Jets
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The predictive model expects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Zach Wilson’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.9% to 61.8%.
- This year, the deficient Raiders defense has given up a monstrous 74.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-worst rate in football.
Cons
- The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- The New York offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Zach Wilson profiles as one of the least effective passers in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.01 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards
224
Passing Yards
