Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The predictive model expects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Zach Wilson’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.9% to 61.8%.
This year, the deficient Raiders defense has given up a monstrous 74.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-worst rate in football.

Cons

The model projects the Jets to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a lowly 55.4 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
The New York offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Zach Wilson profiles as one of the least effective passers in football this year, averaging a lowly 6.01 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 12th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
224
Passing Yards