Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Dolphins vs. Browns
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-125) after it opened @ 268.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.3% pass rate.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
- Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for substantially more yards per game (273.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a terrific 70.3% Completion%, grading out in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
305
Passing Yards
305
Passing Yards
