Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 239.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 239.5 (-110) after it opened @ 243.5 (-114).

Pros

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 59.8% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the projections to run 65.8 total plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.7 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in football versus the Vikings defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
With a lackluster 6.44 adjusted yards-per-target (25th percentile) this year, Derek Carr ranks as one of the least effective QBs in the NFL.
This year, the fierce Minnesota Vikings defense has conceded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a meager 7.4 yards.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota’s collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards