Week 10 lames: Davis denials aplenty against ticked-off Tampa

Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points, TE: 10 fantasy points). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 10 Lames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

(51% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $5,900)
Matchup: at NYG
Vegas line/Total: PHI -3, 44

Over the length of a regular 162-game baseball season, slumps are inevitable. Every player, oh so ritualistic in their daily habits, would like to maintain consistency, but downturns brought on by nagging injuries or psychological turmoil often compound, draining production while raising questions. In the NFL, a league with a fractional season by comparison, droughts are magnified. Wentz is a prime example.

Local and national media members alike are trying to crack the code as to what’s grounded Philly’s “Red Baron.” Most point the finger at ancillary elements — a broken offensive line, wounded receiving corps and uneven ground game — and the added pressure applied by the passer himself. The “Wentz punt” — desperate deep chucks which usually lead to interceptions — has become a thing. If one thing is clear he’s pressing, an explanation for why he’s become maddeningly unpredictable.

Travis Fulgham’s rapid evolution into his top target combined with the activations of Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert and, likely this week, Miles Sanders, has Wentz’s arrow pointing up. Still, his matchup against the shockingly respectable Giants defense could temporarily delay the passer’s turnaround. Yes, Wentz smashed the division rival for 28.8 fantasy points in the first matchup, but he and Ben Roethlisberger are the only two QBs to reach 20 fantasy points against them this year. On the season, they’ve surrendered the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position, largely due to the heat applied (23.7% pressure percentage).

As stated often in the space, no two games are ever the same. In Wentz’s second tango with the Giants, expect another swing and miss.

Fearless forecast: 266 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 3 turnovers, 16 rushing yards, 17.2 fantasy points

Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers

(55%; $4,000)
Matchup: vs. TB
Vegas line/Total: TB -6, 50

Fantasy investors who sank a No. 1 overall pick into Christian McCaffrey in August drafts threw a ticker-tape parade last week as their triumphant warrior finally returned to battle. Against Kansas City’s flexible front, he commanded and conquered the competition with his usual explosiveness and multidimensional flair. On an exhaustive 28 touches he rolled up 151 combined yards and a touchdown. Music blared. Backers danced. Points rained down. However, with confetti still suspended in the air, sadly, the party abruptly ended. Tackled awkwardly late he suffered a shoulder injury, a setback that could deactivate him for this week’s matchup versus Tampa.

Davis elevates into an all-too-familiar position. With CMC sidelined Weeks 4-8, he was the fifth-most-valuable RB in 0.5-PPR leagues, amassing 85.6 total yards per game and three touchdowns. His impressive tackle-breaking ability (3.63 YAC/att.) and versatility prompted HC Matt Rhule to install a rotational backfield upon McCaffrey’s return. Clearly it was coachspeak, but it was a public display of his affection toward the veteran. This week, he should again attract upward of 15-17 touches.

Tampa, humiliated in front of millions, comes to Charlotte with an elephant-sized chip on its shoulder. Picked apart and trampled by New Orleans, the Bucs, battered and bruised, enter another fight determined to wash away the bitterness. Defensively, bank on them regaining respect. This season, Todd Bowels’ bunch have allowed a league-low 2.54 yards per carry, 101.7 total yards per game, nine combined TDs and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Lavonte David and Devin White alone have combined for 35 tackles for loss versus the run. Toss in Curtis Samuel’s growing Swiss army knife role, multiply the numbers and the sum for Davis doesn’t meet a top-20 threshold.

Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 48 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 24 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.7 fantasy points

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

(96%; $7,700)
Matchup: vs. IND
Vegas line/Total: TEN -2, 48.5

Over the past few days, a random landscaping company in Philadelphia has earned more publicity than Indy’s run defense. It’s hilarious, not only for the reasons why the “other” Four Seasons earned the spotlight, but also for the indefensible lack of notoriety the Colts have received. Philip Rivers and a viable ground presence aside, it’s little-known DC Matt Eberflus and his constituents who’ve done a brilliant job in execution. Yes, it helps when Darius Leonard is on your roster, but Grover Stewart and Anthony Walker, who’ve each recorded 16 run stops, deserve considerable praise. As a collective, the Colts have given up 3.12 yards per carry, 62.0 rush yards per game, four rushing TDs and the fewest fantasy points to RBs. With Indiana and Notre Dame both cookin’ at the collegiate level, there indeed is more than just corn in Indiana.

Henry is up to his usual hijinks. He’s repeatedly flattened would-be tacklers, stiff armed dudes into alternate dimensions and gained appreciable yards after initial contact. His 3.51 mark in the category is fifth-best at the position. Still hardly utilized as a pass catcher, he’s an old school down-your-throat throwback who openly dares defenders to thwart his galactic power. Indy, which hasn’t allowed a rusher to exceed 73 yards all season long, are one of the rare units up to the task. The Football Frankenstein falling short of 10 fantasy points in a game for the third time this season isn’t fiction.

Fearless forecast: 20 carries, 81 rushing yards, 1 reception, 6 receiving yards, 9.2 fantasy points

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

(68%; $5,600)
Matchup: at CHI
Vegas line/Total: MIN -2.5, 44.5

Dalvin Cook is the heart, soul and lifeblood of the Vikings run-first, run-often Gary Kubiak zone-blocking scheme, but Adam Thielen and a certain rookie hotshot have added a riveting balance. Jefferson, third behind Chase Claypool and Tee Higgins in 0.5 PPR per game production among rookies, has, by all accounts, delivered the goods. Currently a firm WR2 in 12-team leagues, his vitals are strong, ranking top-10 in yards per catch, yards per target, yards per route run and contested catch rate, a signature category he dominated in while at LSU. The long-distance field stretcher compared to dirty worker Thielen underneath, he filled Stefon Diggs’ Shaq-sized shoes brilliantly. Given the conservative nature of the offense his upside is stunted, but the future is blindingly bright.

On Monday night, the Bears present a stiff challenge. Chicago’s primary weakness is trench coverage. Bulled over by multiple backs this season, Chuck Pagano’s unit has conceded 4.20 yards per carry and 97.0 rush yards per game to RBs. Dalvin Cook’s legs, not Kirk Cousins’ arm, will be the focal point. Jefferson, who lines up in the slot roughly 41% of the time, will split time clashing with fellow rookie Jaylon Johnson (89.8 passer rating allowed) and Buster Skrine (112.4). He’ll have his moments working inside, but expect only modest gains. The Bears’ safeties, for the most part, have prevented sizable chunk gains.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 61 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.1 fantasy points

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens

(54%; $5,700)
Matchup: at NE
Vegas line/Total: BAL -7.5, 42.5

Patriots 2020 wins. Gains tied to little-known marijuana penny stocks. Brown air yards. What do they all have in common? They’re all unrealized. In the case of the former and the latter — those weed investments are coming through, damn it — they may never materialize. Lamar Jackson’s diminishing returns are crushing the receiver’s potential. The passer, QB30 adjusted completion percentage and QB24 in deep ball passer rating, is hardly a remnant of his 2019 MVP campaign. Still, DFS and season-long enthusiasts alike steadfastly believe the long bombs will come. Yep, and pigs will soon fly. Fleeting instances may occur, but a full-blown 100-3 line will come to pass when Josh Rosen actually becomes a viable starting QB in the league.

No, this isn’t the week. Stop it. Yes, this is the most exploitable New England defense in recent memory. When relic Joe Flacco and his “eliteness” tears you a new one, it’s an indictment on how far you’ve fallen. This season, the Pats have surrendered an uncharacteristic 8.8 pass yards per attempt, but they’ve given up the seventh-fewest air yards per game. Neither of Brown’s presumed matchups, Stephon Gilmore (100.9 passer rating allowed) or Jason McCourty (141.1), is a must-avoid any longer, but Jackson’s documented downfield inadequacy says shy away.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 48 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 6.8 fantasy points

Bonus lames (over 50% started)

RB: Darrell Henderson, LAR (Line: LAR -1.5; DK: $5,900) — The battering Ram continues to keep Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown at arm’s length. Or is it really supposed wunderkind Sean McVay? Regardless of who’s responsible, Henderson has performed well above expectations. Blasting through initial contact (2.94 YAC/att), he’s developed into L.A.’s most proficient early-down rusher and primary goal-line smasher. This week, however, he could be on punishment’s receiving end. His opponent, Seattle, is one of the more inflexible run defenses in the league. Slotting inside the top-third in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs, the ‘Hawks have yielded 3.60 yards per carry, 67.1 rush yards per game and six ground scores to RBs. Rejuvenated off the bye, Henderson fails to crack the RB2 class. (FF: 13-51-0-1-8-0, 6.4 fantasy points)

RB: Joe Mixon, CIN (Line: PIT -6.5; DK: $6,100) — Under Armour stock may have a higher R.O.E. compared to the top-10 overall pick some sank in Mixon. Yes, the foot injury cost him games, but with the exception of his three-TD flurry against Jacksonville Week 4, which accounts for 44.8% of his overall fantasy value, he’s left backer pockets empty. Woefully inefficient on a per-touch basis, he ranks RB40 in YAC per attempt (2.55) and in the bottom third in missed tackle rate (15.7%). Cincinnati’s turnstile offensive line, No. 31 in adjusted line yards, deserves plenty of blame, but Mixon isn’t absolved of wrongdoing. If he returns to action, a sudden upward trend isn’t on the docket. Pittsburgh continues to throw up roadblocks versus the run. Vince Williams and Avery Williamson combined have tallied 33 tackles for loss. Collectively the Steelers have allowed 4.02 yards per carry, 104.5 total yards per game, six total TDs and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. (FF: 17-54-0-3-16-0, 8.5 fantasy points)

RB: Melvin Gordon, DEN (Line: LV -5.5; DK: $5,200) — In the Broncos’ Holmes and Watson backfield, Gordon is the one posting elementary numbers. Completely outplayed by Phillip Lindsay in myriad categories, most notably in YAC per attempt (PL: 3.64, MG: 3.01), he’s slowly falling out of favor. Simply put, his tag-team partner is the better downhill, tackle-breaking runner. Gordon is more reliable in the pass game, but this week in a matchup that favors assertive running (vs. LV), expect the CU product to gain the upper hand. The Raiders have yielded 4.7 yards per carry, 149.3 total yards per game, 11 total TDs and the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. He may catch 4-5 passes, but with his opportunity share dwindling he’s largely untrustworthy. (FF: 10-39-0-4-24-0, 8.3 fantasy points)

WR: Tyler Lockett, SEA (Line: LAR -1.5; DK: $6,500) — Historic highs to frustrating lows. That’s a headline that perfectly summarizes Lockett’s undulated season. His consistency is on par with post-election protesters — “Count the votes! No, wait, don’t count the votes.” Four of his past five games, he’s fallen short of 50 yards. Four of his past five games, he failed to score a touchdown. His 38-point detonation in the desert, the 14th-best fantasy WR all-time, comprises 36.7% of his total season production. DK Metcalf is Seattle’s indisputable alpha. Lockett, meanwhile, is the unreliable beta. This week matched against a Rams defense that’s allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to slot machines (5.5-55.0-3), another sub-50-yard effort is likely in the offing. Corner Troy Hill has yielded a modest 85.5 passer rating to his assignments. (FF: 4-49-0, 6.9 fantasy points)

TE: Jared Cook, NO (Line: NO -9.5; DK: $4,600) — Someone grab the barf bucket. Ranking tight ends in a week without Travis Kelce and Hayden Hurst is enough to make stomachs churn. It’s rough out there and Cook, who has been mostly inconsistent, isn’t helping. The Chef Boyardee of TEs has scored in three of his past four contests, but his uneventful 12.3% target percentage implies he’s a classic “TD or bust” player. Michael Thomas’ return and Drew Brees’ socialist spread-the-love nature ensures he’s a crapshoot. So does the daunting matchup. The Niners have surrendered the fourth-fewest fantasy points, 3.7 receptions per game, 36.4 receiving yards per game and one TD to the position. Irv Smith (at CHI), Jimmy Graham (vs. MIN) and Austin Hooper (vs. HOU) are smarter plays. (FF: 3-26-0, 4.1 fantasy points)