Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We got to witness a whole lot of ugly football in Week 10 (minus the excellent Thursday Night Football matchup between Baltimore and Cincinnati). Hopefully, this week will be an aberration and we will get to see some fun games (and robust fantasy stat lines) in Week 11.
There were still some notable fantasy performances despite the lack of statistical production across the league in Week 10. Additionally, there were some players who we learned cannot be relied on to make that final push for a fantasy playoff spot.
Check out Week 10’s risers and fallers below.
Risers
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Not many expected fantasy relevance from Bo Nix in Denver, especially after the team traded Jerry Jeudy this offseason. The move left Courtland Sutton as the only receiver of note in the offense.
For the first four weeks of the season, the skeptics seemed to be right. Nix had just one game with more than 13.0 fantasy points during that stretch. However, in Week 5, things changed.
Since Week 4, Nix has had four top-10 quarterback finishes in fantasy, including a week where he finished as the QB2 overall. Nix has three weeks with 20+ fantasy points during that span and only one game with fewer than 16.0 fantasy points. The rookie was able to muster a top-10 finish going into Sunday Night Football with 16.1 fantasy points against a stout Chiefs defense.
Nix is still modestly rostered across fantasy leagues despite his recent stretch of top-10 fantasy production at the quarterback position. He seems to be improving each week as a passer and offers a solid rushing floor scrambling. He needs to be rostered in all formats for the remainder of the season.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
For the first time since his injury, Travis Etienne Jr. took a commanding hold of Jacksonville’s backfield. While some of that can be attributed to the injury limitations of Tank Bigsby, it still feels like Jacksonville wants Etienne to function as the lead back.
Etienne handled 30 of 44 snaps in the backfield in Jacksonville’s loss to Minnesota. He had more routes run (12) than Bigsby and D’Ernest Johnson combined (9). Etienne earned the only target of the running backs and had 11 carries compared to two by Bigsby and none for Johnson.
The veteran running back hasn’t seen a lot of work the last two weeks (14 carries), but he’s been much more efficient as a runner (68 yards).
Etienne is seemingly healthy and has gotten his explosiveness back as a rusher. He will likely split work with Bigsby for the remainder of the season but is set to be the 1A in the equation. That is good for his fantasy prospects.
Audric Estime, RB, Denver Broncos
Week 10 signified a major shift for Denver’s backfield. Javonte Williams has struggled with efficiency as a rusher this season and has slowly seen his role in the offense diminish. In Week 10, we got a complete takeover of the backfield by rookie Audric Estime.
Estime played on 26 of Denver’s 57 offensive snaps compared to 16 for Javonte Williams Estime ran fewer routes (8 vs. Williams’ 10) and didn’t see a target, but he dominated the touches out of the backfield. The result was 14 carries for 53 yards against a tough Kansas City run defense.
In all reality, this backfield will likely be a mess. Estime lacks pass-catching ability (based on what we have seen), which invites roles for Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin Still, Estime has wrestled control of the early-down work from the veterans in front of him and should be firmly on the fantasy radar going forward.
Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Darnell Mooney has emerged as a legitimate secondary receiving option for the Atlanta Falcons. The success in his new home has led Mooney to be a consistent top-24 wide receiver in fantasy football.
Since Week 5’s game against the Buccaneers (nine receptions on 16 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns), Mooney has carved out a consistent role in Atlanta’s passing attack. He has at least five targets in five straight games and at least four receptions in his last four weeks. Mooney has three straight games with 80+ receiving yards and scored twice during that span.
The Falcons added Mooney as a priority free agent during the offseason, and he is quickly proving why. After years in Chicago functioning as the team’s deep threat, Mooney has carved out a versatile role operating as the secondary receiver to Drake London.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
There was initial concern about Rashod Bateman’s role in Baltimore after the team acquired Diontae Johnson After the trade was made, the coaching staff made it clear that Bateman’s role was safe in the offense.
So far that has proven to be true.
Bateman was on the field for 49 of 63 snaps on Thursday against the Bengals. He finished second to Zay Flowers in routes run (30) and led the team in targets (8). Bateman was able to produce six receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown.
Over the last five games, Bateman has had at least four receptions and 50 yards three times. He’s also found the end zone twice in that span.
There still isn’t enough volume to consider Bateman a locked-in weekly wide receiver play, but he’s proving to be a reliable flex option. That was in doubt when Baltimore acquired Johnson, but so far it seems like Bateman’s role is locked in for the Ravens.
Fallers
Cowboys’ Skill Players
Dak Prescott went from a hamstring strain to a significant hamstring injury to season-ending surgery within a week. The Cowboys offense has already struggled in 2024 thanks to subpar skill players and a bad offensive line, but Week 10 showed us just how bad things can be going forward.
Cooper Rush earned the start against the Eagles but completed just 13 of 23 passes for 45 yards in three quarters of work. He was relieved at the end of the third quarter by Trey Lance, who finished 4-of-6 for 21 yards and an interception. The pass-catchers on the team struggled accordingly.
Jake Ferguson (4), CeeDee Lamb (6) and Jalen Tolbert (3) were the only receivers with more than one reception. However, none of them surpassed 25 receiving yards. The Cowboys were only able to muster six points against the Eagles.
Time will tell if Rush or Lance gets the start going forward (it will probably be both). While the team will face worse defenses than the Eagles, it doesn’t bode well for any of this team’s weapons.
Lamb can likely get there in a high-volume, low-aDot role going forward. Lance will also have weekly appeal due to his rushing upside. But it is hard to imagine anybody on the Cowboys being fun to roster in fantasy for the rest of 2024.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
Chicago’s offense is a mess. While it is easy to blame bad play calling and an awful, injury-riddled offensive line, the truth is that Caleb Williams has struggled since the bye week.
Things looked to be coming into focus after Chicago beat Jacksonville in London in Week 6. In that game, Williams threw for 226 yards and four touchdowns in a dominant performance. Since then, the quarterback has completed just 49.5% of his passes. He’s thrown for just 468 yards without a touchdown or an interception. Those stats have come against Washington, Arizona and New England. None of those are stellar NFL groups.
Chicago’s schedule is about to get very brutal, with the Bears playing all of their divisional opponents (Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota) twice down the stretch of the season. The team will also have matchups against the 49ers and Seahawks before the season ends.
Even if the team chooses to make changes to the coaching staff, this is still a team with a very bad offensive line. It is hard to imagine Williams getting there in fantasy despite all of Chicago’s weapons in the passing attack.
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers
A lot of fantasy analysts expected San Francisco to lighten the load on Christian McCaffrey after Achilles tendonitis delayed his 2024 debut to Week 10. That, combined with the strong production from Jordan Mason to start the season, led many to believe that McCaffery would return in a timeshare.
That was not the case against the Buccaneers.
McCaffrey handled 56 of 64 snaps against Tampa Bay. Both Isaac Guerendo and Mason had one carry while McCaffrey had 13. The running back also earned seven targets.
While the veteran running back struggled on the ground (13 carries for 39 yards), he had an impact as a receiver (six receptions for 68 yards). More importantly, he looked good in his first game action.
Any hope that Mason had earned a portion of this offense disappeared in McCaffrey’s debut. Mason still needs to be rostered in fantasy leagues due to McCaffrey’s injury history, but he cannot be trusted to provide any fantasy value with McCaffrey healthy.
Ty Chandler, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Ty Chandler was a popular fantasy pick this offseason given Aaron Jones’ injury history. Chandler was productive in 2023 and seemingly earned a role in the backfield.
However, Chandler has struggled to see the field this year. The Vikings then traded for Cam Akers (after letting him walk in free agency) to provide additional depth behind Jones.
Since trading for Akers, Chandler has become a complete afterthought in Minnesota’s offense. Meanwhile, Akers has taken hold of the RB2 role behind Jones.
When Jones was injured in Week 10, the backfield became split between Akers and Chandler. However, with Jones healthy, Akers was the only other running back to see the field.
Chandler would have intriguing upside as a pass-catching running back if Jones were to miss a significant stretch of time. However, with Jones on the field, Chandler is droppable in fantasy.
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Xavier Worthy enjoyed a stretch of games where he was highly targeted in Kansas City’s offense after the team’s bye. In Weeks 7 and 8, Worthy earned 16 targets. While the production during that stretch was lacking (seven receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown), it was encouraging that a rookie could earn a consistent workload in the Chiefs offense.
However, things changed dramatically for Worthy when the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins.
In the last two games, Worthy has just one reception on six targets for 11 yards. There have been some misses down the field for the rookie, but the appearance of Hopkins has significantly cut into his target share. That’s even less ideal considering Hopkins has been getting limited repetitions while he learns the offense.
Worthy goes from a player with massive weekly upside due to a combination of his speed and consistent target share to a boom-or-bust option who is reliant on hitting a big play.
The rookie will get his chances in this offense going forward (and has appeal in fantasy due to his rushing ability), but any hope for consistent fantasy production is out the window when competing with Travis Kelce and Hopkins for targets in the offense.
