Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Patriots vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-113/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-113) after it opened @ 42.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- Dallas Goedert has run a route on 87.6% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has been among the leading pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 58.0 yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have played in the 9th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier conditions this week.
- The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.7%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (67.7%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 6.66 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
46
Receiving Yards
46
Receiving Yards
