NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (+100/-137).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-137) after it opened @ 44.5 (-117).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 8th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.58 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Evan Engram has run a route on 80.4% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Evan Engram has been among the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 43.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has allowed the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 37.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
