Week 1 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 7.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Courtland Sutton has totaled a monstrous 93.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among WRs.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 4th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Cons

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Courtland Sutton has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 59.7% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 18th percentile among wide receivers
Courtland Sutton has been among the weakest WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging a measly 1.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards